Martha’s Vineyard 2026 Real Estate Outlook
what the 2025 reset means for buyers and sellers in the year ahead
2025 was a big year for housing — not a crash, not a boom, but a reset. Mortgage rates moved lower, national price growth slowed, and a two-speed market started to emerge across the country.
Here’s a look at what actually happened in 2025, what economists expect in 2026, and what it means for Martha’s Vineyard specifically — because our market never behaves exactly like the national headlines.
The National Picture: 2025 Was a Reset Year
Mortgage rates trended lower as inflation cooled and the Fed prepared to ease policy. That shift brought sidelined buyers back into the market and increased mobility after several years of being locked in place.
Home price growth also slowed to the lowest level since 2019 — but importantly, it never went negative. Slower price appreciation paired with falling rates helped improve affordability for the first time in years.
2026: Economists Expect a Modest, Not Explosive, Year
Most housing economists are calling 2026 a reset year, not a rebound year. The consensus is for:
✔ modest national home price growth (around ~1.5%)
✔ further easing in mortgage rates
✔ incremental improvement in affordability
One economist noted that affordability improves when wages grow faster than home prices, which finally showed up in 2025 and is expected again in 2026.
A Two-Speed Housing Market Is Emerging
National averages are now masking meaningful regional differences. With lean inventory, the Northeast and Midwest posted more resilient pricing, while parts of the South and West saw more inventory, more negotiation, and more price sensitivity.
The Northeast: Tight Inventory, Steady Prices
The Northeast remains one of the tightest inventory regions in the country, which has helped support pricing even as other regions softened. Limited supply is a recurring theme here — and it sets the stage for how the Vineyard performs.
Martha’s Vineyard: What Actually Happened in 2025
Now to the numbers that matter most.
According to LINK MLS:
-
Single- and multi-family sales increased from 276 sales in 2024 to 297 in 2025, a 7.6% increase year-over-year
-
The median selling price rose from $1,612,500 to $1,695,000, a 5.1% increase
-
Days to sale improved from 190 days to 168 days, meaning homes sold faster
-
Active listings at year-end increased from 130 to 143
Even with more inventory, prices did not soften.
For context: at the end of 2019, the Vineyard had 203 active listings. So while inventory is rising, we are nowhere near pre-pandemic supply levels.
The Delisting Factor: A Major Theme of 2025
Another under-reported dynamic in 2025 was the surge in delistings — properties being removed from the market without selling.
Redfin reported that delistings hit the highest level in more than a decade as many homeowners paused rather than reduce price.
They remember a seller’s market and are hesitant to negotiate or offer concessions.
But delisting is not a winning strategy. You lose momentum, you lose exposure, and buyers assume something is wrong.
The era of buyers chasing overpriced listings is over.
In 2026, the smart play is to price correctly at launch, attract demand early, and negotiate from strength.
Looking Ahead to 2026: More Mobility & Better Affordability
2026 should bring more mobility as easing mortgage rates unlock homeowners who felt “rate-locked” in recent years.
Affordability should continue to improve as:
✔ wages outpace price growth
✔ borrowing costs come down
✔ inventory improves incrementally
What This Means for Buyers on the Vineyard
For buyers, 2026 offers a more rational environment:
✔ improving inventory
✔ easing rates
✔ less bidding competition
✔ more quiet opportunities (especially from delistings)
If you’ve been waiting for the Vineyard market to breathe — this is it.
What This Means for Sellers on the Vineyard
For sellers, pricing discipline matters.
The Vineyard remains supply-constrained and prices remain resilient, but success now depends on:
✔ pricing correctly at launch
✔ strong presentation
✔ understanding the buyer pool
This is no longer 2021 pricing behavior.
Bottom Line
If you’re considering buying or selling in 2026, don’t rely on national headlines — Martha’s Vineyard is a hyper-local market.
Reach out for a confidential valuation of your property or to access on-market and off-market opportunities. Happy to walk through the data privately.
