As we reach the halfway point of 2025, both the national housing market and our unique Martha’s Vineyard market are showing signs of stabilization. While many buyers and sellers report a slower “feel,” the data tells a more nuanced story—one of gradual rebalancing, not decline.
🌐 National Market Snapshot
Mortgage Rates & Affordability
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Rates are holding steady, currently around 6.7–6.8% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. This is still well above the sub‑4% rates of the pandemic years, which continues to challenge affordability.
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Affordability pressure remains, especially for first-time buyers, who made up a historically low share of recent purchases. Many are sidelined by high monthly payments and limited starter-home inventory.
Inventory & Price Trends
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Inventory is climbing, with listings up 16% nationally year-over-year. Still, we're far from a "buyers' market" in most places, as inventory is just beginning to normalize.
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Prices expected to level off:
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Zillow forecasts a 1.7% decline through March 2026.
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Other sources predict slight 1–4% increases, depending on region and demand.
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A crash is not expected—more of a plateau or soft correction.
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Key Demographic Shifts
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Investor activity down: Institutional home purchases have dropped to post-2020 lows, giving local buyers more breathing room.
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Renters still waiting: With affordability tight, rental demand is high, and homeownership for many remains aspirational.
💡 Bottom Line: The U.S. housing market is transitioning—not collapsing. Expect moderation in pricing and more balance between buyers and sellers through 2025–26.
🌊 Martha’s Vineyard Market: Local Mid-Year Update
Despite widespread sentiment that the market has slowed, the Vineyard’s numbers are strong—especially when you look at the full first half of the year.
Sales Activity
📈 January Closings Surged—Indicating Late 2024 Buyer Activity
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2025: 27 homes sold in January
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2024: 14 homes sold in January
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Since most sales close 30–60 days after going under contract, this surge reflects a strong finish to 2024—and renewed confidence from serious buyers.
📉 Q2 Softened Slightly
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2025: 62 homes sold
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2024: 68 homes sold
📊 Mid-Year Totals Tell the Full Story
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123 homes sold in the first half of 2025
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114 homes sold in the first half of 2024
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That’s an 8% increase, showing that despite the quieter spring pace, overall market activity is up.
Inventory Trends
📦 Listings Are Up Significantly
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June 2025: 65 new listings
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June 2024: 43 new listings
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That’s a 51% increase, giving buyers more choice and softening the intensity we saw during the pandemic.
🏡 Total Homes for Sale
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June 2025: 242 homes
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June 2024: 180
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Pre-pandemic benchmark: 312 homes (June 2019)
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We’re not there yet—but inventory is steadily recovering toward a healthier, more balanced market.
🔍 What This Means Going Forward
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Late 2024 Buyer Surge Boosted Early 2025 Sales
The January spike in closings tells us that buyers were active over the holidays—proof that demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s just become more selective and timing-dependent. -
Inventory Expansion Is Creating Breathing Room
With more listings and less urgency, buyers can take their time. Sellers, meanwhile, need to lean on smart pricing and presentation to stand out. -
The Vineyard Market Is Not Falling—It’s Normalizing
This is not a downturn. Prices are holding, and more homes are changing hands overall. We’re slowly returning to a stable pre-pandemic rhythm. -
Now May Be the Ideal Window for Both Buyers and Sellers
More options, more balanced negotiations, and steadier market conditions make this a compelling moment for strategic moves.
🤝 Need Help Navigating the Market?
The O’Hanlon Group knows Martha’s Vineyard like no one else.
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply want to better understand your position in today’s market, we’re here to guide you with data-backed advice and deep local expertise.
📞 Contact us today for a private consultation.
